2016 Articles of Interest
December
High Yield, High Risk: 'It Makes Sense To Take Some Off The Table'
Metamorphosis: Markets Transformed By Economic Hope
GM Inventories Highest in 8 Years, Multiple Plant Shutdowns Coming
What It Means That The Fed Declares That It Is Done
Italy’s Day of Reckoning Is Coming
America’s Largest Pension Fund: A 7.5% Annual Return Is No Longer Realistic
Adjusting Wholesale Sales And Inventory
This Second-Half Rebound Is Built On Sand
Drastic Implications of Persistent Slack Indications
Understanding The Yield Curve And Its Impact On The Dollar
B.F. Skinner And The Psychology Of The Markets
November
Eight Italian Banks to Fail: Renzi Seeks Scapegoat
The Black Hat Gang Is Headed For An Ambush In The Bond Markets
The Pressing Problem Nobody Dares Discuss
Trumpflation: Not Now, Maybe Later
The secular trend in interest rates remains lower; the yield bottom is still ahead of us
Reflections On Recession Are A Very Real Affair
The Lethal Market Risk For The Coming Year
So You're Telling Me There's A Chance
Over 94 Million Americans Are Outside the Labor Force and That’s Almost Certain to Rise
Weak But Not Getting Weaker II
Fed Asset Bubble in Review: Will Falling Equity Prices Trigger a Recession?
Monetary Stimulus Yields Diminished Benefits
Asset Bubbles From Stocks to Bonds to Iron Ore Threaten China
October
Caterpillar Says Sales Woes Could Linger
GE Profit Falls as Revenue Growth Less Than Expected
Shallow Contraction Continues; IP Falls For 13th Straight Month
Why the Economy Doesn’t Roar Anymore
How Caterpillar’s Big Bet Backfired
Dangerous, One-Sided, All-In Market
The Next Recession Looms Large
Watch That Corporate Leverage, Folks
The Frog On The Stove: Risk Creep And Financial Crises
Sorry, Central Banks: Risk and Volatility Cannot be Extinguished
Three Risks to the Global Financial System as Debt Hits Record Levels
There Really Is Nothing Left to the Money Illusion
The Impact In China And Abroad Of Slowing Growth
September
A Realistic Decomposition Of Rates, Or At Least A Realistic Interpretation Of It
A Sudden Abundance Of Warning Signs
Not Even An OPEC Deal Will Stop Oil Going Lower, Goldman Warns
It’s Not Really About Deutsche Bank
Bank of Japan Tries Another Way to Spur Inflation
Why China Bears Are Buying Chinese Stocks
Earnings And Valuations Update; Still Nowhere Near Good
What Will Result From Sideways?
Heavy-Equipment Glut Weighs on Machine Makers
Collision Course: Motor Vehicle Production +0.5%, Motor Vehicle Sales -4.4% Year-Over-Year
What's the Real Unemployment Rate? That's the Wrong Question
Michael Pettis Calls Surplus Trade Statements by German Finance Minister “Utter Lunacy”
Investors Flee Heavily Indebted Mongolia
"Get Ya Popcorn Ready" RBC Says: "Markets Are Paralyzed With Uncertainty" As "Spook Story" Arrives
More Indications of Labor Slowing
Does It Matter If China Cleans Up Its Banks?
Global Deflation Alert—–Hanjin Bankruptcy Puts Global Supply Chain In Turmoil
Q2 Earnings Review – Hockey Stick Hopes Remain
August
Chinese Banks Step Up Bad-Loan Write-Offs
The Apotheosis Of Bubble Finance—–Folly Of The FANGs, Part 1
The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking
Cognitive Dissonance And The Bull Market
Liquidity Risk Is Very Real And Really Not That Hard To Spot And Define
Largest Oil Companies’ Debts Hit Record High
How Yield Chasers Could Be Pushing Down Volatility
The Eurozone Is Certain To Fail, According To Stiglitz
Dividends Eat Up Bigger Slice of Company Profits
Cisco And Target Are Not Really About Cisco Or Target
Cisco Systems to lay off about 14,000 employees: CRN
BHP Billiton Reports Worst-Ever Annual Loss
When Will the Bank of Japan Own 100% of Japanese ETFs?
Macy’s to Close About 15% of Stores, Cut Jobs
Deutsche Bank Unexpectedly Found To Have Massive Capital Gap, Larger Than Its Entire Market Cap
Trapped In Low Growth By Ineptitude
The Insurance Industry Has Been Turned Upside Down by Catastrophe Bonds
How You End up With a Fake Economy
What Do Inventories Suggest About 3rd Quarter GDP? Can Drones Cure the “Inventory Crisis”?
Anxiety Weighs on U.S. Corporate Earnings
How and When Does This Mess End?
It's Even Worse Than I Expected
July
U.S. Economy Grew at a Disappointing 1.2% in 2nd Quarter
What The FOMC Has To Keep Repeating Matters, Not What It Changes
Recent S&P 500 High Vs. 2007 Peak
Why Swap Spreads Are Suddenly Blowing Out And Why This Is Good For Treasuries
Portuguese Banks Face Potential Big Losses
Corporate Tax Collection In Spain Goes Negative €539 Million
Implications Of The End Of Global QE And/Or NIRP
IMF Cuts 2016 Global Economic Growth Outlook After Brexit Vote
Bulls Vs. Bears: The Indicators Point To A Potential Knock Out
Globalization And Its Discontents
U.S. Exports to China Shrink, Especially for Heavy Industry
The ‘Costs’ Of Beyond The Cycle
Why Helicopter Money Won't Push Stocks Higher
Lacy Hunt on Negative Multiplier of Government Debt
Black Hole of Negative Rates Is Dragging Down Yields Everywhere
End All The Myths; They’re Almost Done Anyway
Rearranging The Deck Shares——Central Banks Inflating Massive Debt Bubble Even Further
ECB Triggers Another Bank Shares Selloff, Tells Monte dei Paschi to Shed More Assets
Bob Janjuah Explains All That Is Wrong With The Financial System (And Remains Bearish)
Negative Revisions, Balance Sheet Rot, “Bre-lief” Rally
June
Italy’s Zombie Banks on Death Bed, Bail-Ins Coming?
Deja Vu: The UK's Brexit Decision May Trigger A Replay Of The 1931-1932 Global Devaluations
Australia Central Bank Worried About Deflation – Does Study, Blames Aldi
Money Market Illiquidity Further Removes A Central Myth
European Markets Remain Pressured by ‘Brexit’
Forget Brexit: According To Albert Edwards, There Is A Far Bigger Risk To The Global Economy
We're In A Recession - And You Should Be Happy About It
Economic Gauges Raise Specter of Recession
Retail Sales Slump Back; Auto Sales In Particular
China Review: Economic Risk And Recommendation
German 10-Year Government Bond Yields Dip Below Zero for First Time
BNEF Report Says Solar Energy, Batteries, Wind Will Dominate, Fossil Fuel Usage to Collapse
Bloomberg: 'Everything's A Buy' Really?
US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession?
Goldman Turns Downright Gloomy, Warns Market "Despair" Is Coming, Prepare For A Major Drawdown
Daimler to Lay Off More Than 1,200 Workers in North America
Your Portfolio Design: Assume the Fetal Position
The Labor Report Looks Much Different Without Such High Positive Variation
The Death Of The Savings-Investment Virtuous Cycle—–Why Economic Growth Is Dying
Welcome To The New Normal, Where 3x More Risk Gets You The Same Returns As Twenty Years Ago
May
Service Sector Growth Weakest Since 2009; Markit Economist Estimates 0.7% GDP
Moody’s downgrades Deutsche Bank’s credit rating
Balance Due: Credit-Card Debt Nears $1 Trillion as Banks Push Plastic
At Last, Someone Apologizes for Deflation
Without Recovery There Is Every Need To Examine The Worst Case
Another Headline Head Fake—The Consumer Can’t Save The U.S. Economy
Greece “Demands” Debt Relief, Owes Troika €11+ Billion by July
Two More Energy Companies Go Bankrupt: Linn Energy, Penn Virginia File Chapter 11
Jobs: How Good are the Jobs the Economy is Creating?
The Recession’s Economic Trauma Has Left Enduring Scars
Why Aren't We Getting Any Wealthier?
Nothing Has Changed Though Payrolls Show Up Ugly This Month
Payrolls Miss Huge: April Jobs Rose Only 160K, Below 200K Expected; Unemployment Rate At 5%
U.S. Productivity Fell 1%, Signaling Tepid Growth
Puerto Rico’s Debt Crisis Deepens as Government Misses Payment
Delta Force ΔGDP = ΔPopulation + ΔProductivity
April
Portugal’s Financial Independence Hangs by a Thread
Once Bustling Trade Ports in Asia and Europe Lose Steam
Another Gary Cooper Rebound—–It Isn’t On The Level
Another Chinese Yuan Devaluation Is Coming
China debt load reaches record high as risk to economy mounts
Caterpillar Falls After Sales Plunge 26%, Earnings Miss; Outlook Slashed
Union Pacific Profit Falls on Weak Freight Demand
2015 Caused An Earnings Rift, Too
Goldman Shows the Big Problem for Banks: Revenue
New Nothingness: No Growth, No Reform, No Productivity, No Inflation
Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook
Wells Fargo Profit Drops as Energy Pain Spreads
Peak Preowned: Used Car Inventory Hits Record Level; Congratulations, You Are Qualified
Banks Face Massive New Headache on Oil Loans
Italy pushes for bank rescue fund
We're Trapped In A Low Growth Economy And There's No Way Out
Triffin's Paradox Revisited: Crunch-Time for the U.S. Dollar and the Global Economy
The Pew Charitable Trusts: Household Expenditures and Income
March
Durable Goods May Not Actually Show Recession, And That Is The Worst Case
Europe is now drowning under the cost of welfare bills
The 4 Horsemen Of The Global Deleveraging Apocalypse, Part II: The Debt Time Bomb
The 4 Horsemen Of The Global Deleveraging Apocalypse, Part I: China's Renminbi Devaluation
Brazil’s Boom-Era Missteps Now Haunt Economy
The Stock Market Remains Obscenely Overvalued
"Free" Trade, Jobs and Income Inequality: It's Not As Easy As We Might Think
Buyback Blackout Period Starts Monday: Is This The Catalyst That Ends The S&P Rally?
Harsh Lessons From Historical Policy Divergences
India's Ugly Bad-Loans Situation Is About to Get Even Worse
Subprime Flashback: Early Defaults Are a Warning Sign for Auto Sales
U.S. Import Prices Fell 0.3% in February
Forget Grexit Or Brexit; Italexit Is Next
China Resorts to “Stealth Interventions” to Prop Up Yuan and Stock Market
Europe Faces Pension Predicament
A Modest Proposal: Gift The BLS To The Democratic National Committee Or Sell It To CNBC
Eurozone Deflationary Pressures Intensify; France PMI Back in Contraction
Fresh recession will cause Eurozone collapse, warns Swiss bank
As China’s Economy Slows, the World’s Factory Takes a Break
“Eurozone Will Collapse” Says Former Head of Bank of England: “It’s Real Hell”
February
Q4 GDP Revisions Leave Nothing Revised
Rush of Corporate Bonds Inflames Worries About China’s Debt
The Great Recession Scare of 2016
The U.S. States Where Recession Is Already a Reality
Teamster retirees fight massive pension cuts at Kansas City town hall, warn others at risk
The Eurozone: Still Hasn't Recovered
Macro And Credit - The Vasa Ship
It Was Never About Oil Part 2; It Was Always Leverage and Volatility
Creditors must brace for a tsunami of losses in a world awash with debt
IEA Warns Oil Prices Could Fall Further as Oversupply Worsens
Big Companies Pull Back After Rough Quarter
Robust Job Growth Doesn’t Make Sense And The Numbers Show Why
Explaining Today's Collapse In US Worker Productivity
BP’s Earnings Plunge Amid Oil-Price Slide
What might the next US recession look like?
South Korean Exports Fall at Fastest Pace Since Financial Crisis
January
For Mining Chiefs, Doomsday Scenarios Could Become Reality
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Tumbled 5.1% in December
Italy, EU Strike Deal to Address Bad Loans
"Temporary" Capital Controls Coming to China?
700 Days In No Man’s Land——Why They Can’t Keep It Up
Run on Italy's Third Largest Bank? Capital Controls or Bail-Ins Next? Why Take Chances?
Italian Banks Hammered; Bad Loans Hit €201 Billion; End of Draghi PUT; Get Out Now!
Welcome to the Crisis Economy, Where Tumult Reigns
BHP Billiton to Take Big Charge on U.S. Onshore Energy Assets
'Steel industry is in hell' and the pain shows no sign of letting up
Brazil’s Vale Will Draw $3 Billion From Credit Lines
Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns
RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Another 2% Yuan Devaluation Coming Up? What Are the Risks? Explaining Chinese Capital Flight
A $500 Car Repair Bill Would Send Most Americans Scrambling
Safe On The Sidelines—475 Days And Still Counting
China Factories Haven’t Fought Off Overcapacity, Weak Demand